A lot of people are worried that a recession is in our future. Some believe it may already be here. Our Peek of the Week pumps the brakes on the whole "recession" idea to evaluate the facts, details and future estimations. Unemployment is low, inflation is high, and both tend to occur in an economy going through some strong growth. So, which is it?! Are we experiencing strong growth or going through the early stages of a recession? It's important to remember that the models used to predict these things can be volatile, resulting in questionable or conflicting data.
What's the difference between volatility and risk? Our Peek of the Week analyzes the recent inflation numbers, current retail sales data, and the risks involved with market volatility. We do our best to explain the difference between risk and volatility. You may have noticed... we are hearing the word "inflation" A LOT and feeling the rising prices to go with it. Mainly, it's a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the supply chain bottlenecks with no end in sight at the moment.
According to today's blog, "rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store." Would you agree? And, what will it take to calm this wild child down?
Our Peek of the Week explains how the Fed is laser focused on calming our country's conditions of inflation and volatility. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was quoted saying, "We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and business."
The first six months of the year have been quite the ride. So far this year we've faced: ongoing inflation, witnessed the Fed's response to inflation, seen stock prices fall and we've FELT consumer sentiment tumble with it. Our Peek of the Week is explaining what brought us this bear market and how investors are expected to respond going forward.
The heat of summer brings one of our favorite holidays, the 4th of July! The fourth signifies our nationhood and our freedom. Please read our special 4th of July "Peek of the Week" for some great ways to spend the holiday this year. We hope that on this celebration of freedom, you make a promise to yourself to continue your hard work to stay on your path to financial freedom. And if you need help with that, we are here for you.
Our brand new Peek of the Week doubles down on the feelings of the American consumer: feeling blue. About half of Americans are spending less due to inflation and 79 percent of consumers anticipate business conditions to decline during the next 12 months. Investors are choosing to see the good with the fact that the Federal Reserve may slow its rate hikes, or may raise rates by less, since consumers are spending less and manufacturing growth has slowed.
The stock market has been dropping, but it's important to know the stock market isn't very accurate when it comes to predicting recessions. And it sure seems like that's the word being thrown around these days: recession. The fact is, bear markets in stocks lead to recessions only about 53 percent of the time. In other words, the stock market has about the same predictive value for recessions as a simple coin toss. Let that sink in!
If it wasn't on your radar, Father's Day is this Sunday! We're sharing a special Father's Day "Peek of the Week" in honor of all the dads and father-figures out there. Do you know when the first Father's Day was celebrated? There are a few stories circulating around about the first day that was officially dedicated to Dad. Whatever the true origins of the day, it has now evolved to be a time to honor the person or people who have stepped into the fatherly roles in our lives. Let us honor Dad and take some time to celebrate everything Dads have done and can do for us.
Well, it's safe to say that inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than the markets originally predicted or expected. Our Peek of the Week puts to rest the idea that inflation peaked in March of this year, because it has actually continued to rise each month since then. What are we seeing the most significant increases in? Energy and food. The war in Ukraine has created a major shock across the globe due to supply chain disruptions and no end in sight.
Consumers are feeling more pessimistic than they have in a decade. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey shows that sentiment has been sliding lower all year. Today's Peek of the Week explains how during a time when consumer pessimism feels at an all-time high, consumers could actually be more optimistic than the reports are indicating.
The three major U.S. stock market indices moved higher last week... for the first time in weeks. Prior to the increase, we saw investors reassess their approach and predictions. Today's Peek of the Week explains how strong corporate profits, more attractive share prices and the Fed's potential slowdown of rate hikes have brought us a stock market rally. And we appreciate it!
While we get a day off to celebrate with backyard barbeques and family, we want the concept of 'giving back' to be considered this year. How have the heroes of our country's history inspired you? Honor our fallen heroes, choose to be inspired and get out in the community to give back this year. If you're short on ideas, today's special blog commentary will provide a few!
