Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for December 18, 2023. Today's Peek of the Week shares an answer from Jerome Powell on the topic, considering his comments added to positive inflation news from earlier in the week. But the inflation picture isn't as rosy when you consider the numbers. Both headline inflation and core inflation ticked higher month-to-month, with core inflation being 4.0 percent over the previous year. Key contributors to the annual core inflation numbers are things like shelter costs, insurance, personal care and recreation. Global stock and bond markets celebrated falling inflation.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for December 11, 2023. Today's Peek of the Week shares recent stock market insights plus the idea that Federal Reserve will soon change course. Last week we saw employers adding more jobs than expected, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, and an employment report showed that average hourly earnings increased in November, rising 4 percent year-over-year. Inflation has softened but consumers are still feeling the pinch of prices. The S&P 500 gained for the sixth consecutive week, according to Bloomberg.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for December 4, 2023. Economic activity tends to move in the cycle of: contraction, trough, expansion and peak. At the end of the fourth quarter, the U.S. economy has been in the late cycle stage of expansion, yet this doesn't necessarily mean that we will reach a contraction entirely. Expansions occur when an economy produces more goods and services and our economy has been expanding since mid-year-2022. Expansions end when the economy experiences a shock of some kind. Shocks that cause recessions might include financial market disruptions, international disturbances, technology shocks, energy price shocks and actions taken by monetary policymakers to restrain inflation.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for November 27, 2023. Today's Peek of the Week lets us know that investors have been more optimistic this month. In early November, investors were "decidedly bearish" but as stock markets gained and the month continued, participants in the AAII survey started to become more bullish. Consumers have been considerably less optimistic overall, as we saw the fourth month of declining sentiment in a row. Stocks moved higher after many investors felt confident that the Fed is done raising rates.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for November 20, 2023. Today's Peek of the Week asks, "is it done yet?" and we aren't talking about the Thanksgiving turkey! Investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Fed could be done raising rates and might even begin to lower them. Inflation eased and the Consumer Price Index showed U.S. inflation running flat from September to October. Core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) is up, and we also saw gasoline and fuel oil prices dropping. While a slower pace of overall price increases is great news, inflation remains well above the Fed’s two percent target. Our PEEK also shares employment and hiring details, while noting that stocks moved higher last week.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for November 13, 2023. Today's Peek of the Week discusses how earnings shifted during the third quarter. Companies in the S&P 500 have been experiencing an "earnings recession", as year-over-year earnings had declined for three consecutive quarters (from October 2022 through June 2023). In fact, it's considered an earnings recession after a decline in just two consecutive quarters. Now, it's worth noting that 92 percent of companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings up 4.1 percent for third-quarter performance. The "earnings recession" is over but there are still concerns about slowing economic growth and the possibility of a recession. Downward earnings revisions fuel our current market uncertainty and as of last week, investors embraced the idea of a soft landing and lower rates.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for November 6, 2023. Today's Peek of the Week asks “will there be a year-end rally in the stock market?” while also acknowledging that no one knows with any certainty what the future will bring. As investors try to predict market lows and highs, they remember that creating a well-allocated and diversified portfolio is the best way to combat any uncertainty in the markets.
Peek of the Week - Halloween Commentary 2023. We have a special Halloween Peek of the Week for you today! Halloween is a fun day to pretend to be someone else, and it's also the perfect day to remember that we can always choose to become whoever we want to be, without any pretending.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for October 30, 2023. We share random economic theories that have been used to explain financial market trends throughout history. One is The Aspirin Indicator, a theory that says if aspirin production is down, then the markets must be up because people are experiencing fewer headaches. It also states that if aspirin production is up, then markets must be down because people are experiencing more headaches. This year, stocks moved lower in October and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 500 entered correction territory. A correction occurs when an Index (or stock) drops 10 to 20 percent from its previous high. As we know, timing the market is exceptionally difficult but making a change right now is rarely a good idea if you're already working with a diversified portfolio.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for October 23, 2023. We share a recap of all the uncertainty cycling through the markets. According to a survey released by Investopedia last month, investors are currently most concerned about: inflation, the upcoming election, a recession, interest rates, U.S. tension with China, the war in Ukraine, the war in Israel, the U.S. credit rating and climate disasters. The ability to stay calm and consider the big picture becomes extremely important in the midst of uncertainty. We take a deeper look at the history of stock market performance and compare it to the tumultuous challenges of our current day.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for October 16, 2023. Investors are currently considering geopolitics, the war in Israel, inflation, consumer sentiment, government shutdowns and volatility. In the last week, we've seen a war get declared with high death tolls and now the risk of it increasing in Israel's surrounding region has appeared. Americans are experiencing persistent inflation which has consumers feeling less optimistic. The good news is that banks did well in the third quarter.
Peek of the Week - Weekly Market Commentary for October 9, 2023. Financial markets lost ground during the third quarter, but U.S. stocks rallied last week due to corporate earnings and falling inflation. New details on inflation numbers, the labor market, and U.S. employment data. Unemployment rates are nearing historically low levels and labor force participation increased.
